All Betting 101 guides

DvP betting and ball knowledge

How to find player props in good matchups using defense-vs-position numbers, and the ball knowledge that tells you which spots hold up.

TommyLocks, Nov 3, 3 min read

DvP stands for defense vs. position: how much a defense allows to each position. If a team gives up the most points per game to centers, or the 2nd most assists to point guards, that’s a weakness an opposing player at that position can take advantage of.

DvP betting starts with the matchup instead of the teams. The question isn’t who wins the game, it’s which defense is weak at a position and who walks into that spot tonight. That makes it a natural fit for player props: points, rebounds, assists, 3s, steals and blocks.

Reading a sheet line

Each line on a DvP cheat sheet reads the same way:

SAC allows the most APG to PG (10.77)—> Doncic

• SAC is the defense.
• The most APG to PG is the weakness: Sacramento allows more assists per game to point guards than any other team.
• 10.77 is how many assists per game they’ve allowed to point guards.
• Doncic is the player in that spot tonight.

Finding a DvP spot, step by step

1. Find the weakness. Rank every defense by what it allows to each position. A top rank in a stat is a spot worth a look.
2. Find the player. Who plays that position against that defense tonight: the starter, plus the backup if the starter is questionable or the backup plays big minutes.
3. Check the role. Minutes, usage, and whether the player actually gets the stat in question. A center who rarely shoots 3s doesn’t benefit much from a defense that allows 3s to centers.
4. Check recent form. How the player has done in that stat over his last several games, and how players at his position have done against this defense lately.
5. Compare to the line. A good matchup is already priced in when the line has moved up to match it.
6. Shop the price. Prop prices vary a lot from book to book, so the same bet can be noticeably cheaper at one of them.

Where ball knowledge comes in

The numbers show where a defense has been weak. Ball knowledge explains why, and whether it holds up tonight:

• Who they’ve played. A defense that faced three All-Star point guards in a week will look weak against point guards. Early in the season, a few games can swing a ranking.
• Who’s missing. If a team’s best perimeter defender was hurt during that stretch and is back now, the weakness may be gone. The reverse is true too: a defender going down can open a spot the season numbers don’t show yet.
• Positions are labels. Sites list players at different positions, and many players guard more than one spot. Who actually guards whom matters more than the label.
• Pace and style. Fast teams create more possessions, which means more of every stat for both sides. Teams that switch everything, or drop their center deep, change who gets open shots and rebounds.
• Rotations. A starter on a minutes limit, a hot bench player, or a coach shortening the rotation changes who gets the chances.
• Game script. A likely blowout can cut a starter’s fourth-quarter minutes, which matters for any over.

Lineup news

A DvP spot only works if the right player gets the minutes. When a starter is ruled out, his backup can step into the matchup, and prop lines often take a while to catch up. That’s also where the risk is: a questionable tag that turns into a late scratch, or a starter who plays limited minutes, can sink a prop that looked great on paper. Check statuses right up to tip-off.

Watch it explained

Tommy breaks down the sheets and DvP spots on video on the TommyLocks YouTube channel.

Tools for DvP betting

• The cheat sheets in Educated Wagers list every top DvP spot on tonight’s slate, update when lineup news breaks, and show the starter plus the replacement where it matters. Tap any number to see who faced that defense at that position in its last 4 games, or tap a player’s name to see his last 5 games in those stats.
• The odds screen compares every book’s price on player props, including double-doubles and triple-doubles. Sort by % diff to see where books disagree most.
• How to use the cheat sheets covers how Tommy uses the sheet as a starting point.