Educated Wagers

Sample oddsEvery book’s price side by side, best price highlighted. Tap any price to add it to the parlay calculator. Tap a column heading to sort: once for highest first, again for lowest first, a third time to go back to games.

Sample oddsPlays where one book’s price beats the fair price. Fair price comes from removing the bookmaker margin at every book and averaging what’s left, so it’s the market’s own estimate of each side’s chance. Double-doubles and triple-doubles are often posted as Yes only; those fair prices are estimated and marked est.

Sample oddsThe same bet priced differently across books, biggest difference first. % difference is how much more the best price pays than the worst: +150 against +120 pays 25% more profit on the same stake. Tap a column heading to sort.

Sample oddsArbs: the best prices on both sides add up to less than 100%, so betting both at different books returns a profit whatever happens. Middles: two books have different lines, so both bets win if the result lands between them. Stakes are split so both sides pay the same.

Prices move fast, and books may cancel bets placed at obvious errors or limit accounts that bet arbs. Check both prices at the books before betting.

Each team’s expected starting five and how often each starter took his team’s first shot (1st Shot), scored his team’s first basket (1st Team), and scored the game’s first basket (1st Basket) this season, in games he started. The middle shows how his first baskets came: 3-pointer, dunk, free throw, layup or other. The odds columns show the best first basket price across the books and the lowest price across the books, with how much more the best one pays (tap one to open that book).

Expected starters for tonight (players ruled out are skipped; Q = questionable). Rates are this season, in games he started; – means he hasn’t started yet this season.

Every player ruled out tonight who plays real minutes, and what happens to his teammates without him: their averages in games he missed against games he played, next to tonight’s lines and how often they cleared them without him. This season’s games; last season’s (same team) if he hasn’t missed one yet.

Tonight’s overs that have all three edges: Matchup (named on tonight’s sheet, a top-10 defense-vs-position spot in that stat), Price (+EV against the fair price, a book clearly off the others, or a book still on a lower number than the market), and Opportunities (rebound chances, potential assists or 3-point attempts trending up, near a double-double or triple-double last night, or clearing this line in most recent games). Ranked by how strong the three edges are together.

Double-doubles for players on tonight’s sheet whose matchup is a top-8 leak in rebounds or assists, where the Yes price has an edge (+EV or a book clearly off the others). ★ = a form edge on top (rebound chances or potential assists trending up or already high, or near a DD/TD last night). Games with a 40%+ blowout chance are marked in red and ranked lower, since these need fourth-quarter minutes.

Plays are ranked by how strong all three edges are together.

Every game’s total, spread and each team’s implied points, the projected pace (possessions per team, against the league average), and the blowout chance: how likely the final margin is 15 or more, which is when starters lose fourth-quarter minutes. Fast games help overs; blowout risk hurts starters’ overs and helps bench players.

Every player on tonight’s slate, averaged over his last 5 games: potential assists (passes that would have been assists if the shot went in), rebound chances (times he was near a rebound) and 3-point attempts. The ▲/▼ % is his last 5 against his season average, so you can see whose role is growing. Tap a column heading to sort: once for highest first, again for lowest first, a third time to go back to games.

Last night’s games, every team. Near double-double: one of points, rebounds or assists at 10+ and another a basket short (7–9 points) or 1–2 short (8–9 rebounds or assists). Near triple-double: all three at 7 or more, like 7/7/7, 10/7/13 or 10/9/8. Pre-game odds is the best price his double-double or triple-double was before the game, so you can see what would have cashed; – means no book posted one.

Players averaging at least 10 minutes. Potential assists and rebound chances come from NBA.com player tracking (updated each morning); 3-point attempts from ESPN box scores. Small samples early in the season swing a lot.

Parlays you saved from the parlay window. They’re kept on your account, so they show up on any device. Load into parlay adds the legs to the parlay window with tonight’s prices. Load two and they combine into one slip.